The Problem with Raw Data
Travis County records thousands of public filings every month — lis pendens, code violations, tax delinquencies, permit applications, deed transfers. Each one is a potential signal that a property owner is in distress or that a property is about to change hands.
But raw data isn't actionable. A single code violation on a well-maintained property owned by someone with $300,000 in equity is very different from a code violation on a property that also has a lis pendens filing, two years of delinquent taxes, and an owner who lives out of state.
The first property has a minor problem. The second property has a motivated seller.
The Intelligence Score exists to make that distinction automatically. It's a composite metric, scored 1-100, that evaluates every property in our database across multiple distress dimensions and produces a single number that answers the question: how likely is this owner to sell at a discount, and how soon?
The Six Input Categories
The Intelligence Score is built from six categories of public data, each weighted based on its predictive value for motivated seller behavior.
1. Foreclosure Filings (Weight: 30%)
This is the strongest single signal. A lis pendens or notice of default filing means a lender has formally begun the foreclosure process. The owner is behind on payments and faces a legal deadline.
We track:
•Filing type: Lis pendens, notice of default, notice of trustee sale, and notice of substitute trustee sale each carry different urgency levels
•Filing recency: A filing from last week is more urgent than one from four months ago
•Filing stage: A notice of trustee sale (auction scheduled) scores higher than an initial lis pendens (lawsuit filed)
•Repeat filings: Multiple foreclosure actions on the same property over time indicate chronic financial distress
A property with an active notice of trustee sale and an auction date within 30 days will score 25-30 points from this category alone.
2. Tax Delinquency (Weight: 20%)
Property tax delinquency is one of the most reliable indicators of financial distress. In Texas, property taxes are due January 31. After that date, penalties and interest accrue aggressively — up to 47% in combined penalties and interest by July of the delinquent year.
We evaluate:
•Years delinquent: One year is concerning. Two or more years is a strong distress signal.
•Amount owed: Larger balances indicate deeper financial problems
•Tax suit filed: Travis County can file suit to force sale of tax-delinquent properties. An active tax suit is a high-urgency signal.
For a deeper dive into tax delinquency as an investment signal, see our [complete guide to tax delinquent properties in Travis County](/blog/tax-delinquent-properties-travis-county).
3. Code Violations (Weight: 15%)
Code violations tell you about the physical condition of a property and, often, the owner's ability or willingness to maintain it. A single minor violation (tall grass, for example) might mean nothing. But a pattern of violations — especially structural or habitability issues — suggests a property the owner has lost the capacity to manage.
We track:
•Violation severity: Structural issues, roof damage, and habitability violations score higher than cosmetic issues
•Violation count: Multiple active violations indicate systemic neglect
•Compliance history: Repeated violations that are cited, fixed, and then recur suggest an owner who is struggling
Read more about how code violations correlate with motivated sellers in our [dedicated analysis](/blog/code-violations-motivated-sellers).
4. Permit Activity (Weight: 10%)
Building permits can signal both opportunity and context. A property with no permits filed in 10+ years, combined with other distress signals, suggests deferred maintenance. Conversely, a recently pulled demolition permit might indicate an investor already has plans for the property.
We look at:
•Permit recency: No permits in 5+ years combined with other signals adds to the score
•Permit type: Demolition permits, major renovation permits, and foundation repair permits each provide different context
•Permit completion: Open permits that were never finaled suggest abandoned projects
Learn more about [how building permits function as investment signals](/blog/building-permits-investment-signals).
5. Ownership & Equity Signals (Weight: 15%)
The owner's situation matters as much as the property's condition. We analyze:
•Absentee ownership: Out-of-state owners with distress signals are more likely to sell quickly — they can't easily manage repairs or fight foreclosure proceedings from a distance
•Length of ownership: Long-term owners (10+ years) typically have more equity, which means more room for a deal that works for both sides
•Estimated equity: Properties with positive equity are more likely to close — the owner has a financial incentive to sell rather than let the property go to auction
•Mortgage age and type: Recent ARM originations in the 2021-2022 window are a known risk factor
6. Market Context (Weight: 10%)
A distressed property in a strong neighborhood is a different opportunity than one in a declining area. We factor in:
•Zip code median price trends: Rising or stable markets preserve the owner's equity
•Days on market for the area: Faster-moving markets mean quicker exits for the investor
•Cash buyer prevalence: Areas with high [cash buyer activity](/blog/cash-buyer-activity-austin) indicate strong investor demand
How the Score Maps to Seller Motivation
Based on our analysis of thousands of Travis County properties and actual transaction outcomes, here's how to interpret the Intelligence Score:
1-20: Low distress. The property may have a single minor signal (one code violation, one year of tax delinquency). These are generally not actionable leads unless you're doing high-volume outreach.
21-40: Moderate distress. Two or more signals are present but may not overlap in urgency. Worth monitoring but not worth prioritizing over higher-scored leads.
41-60: Elevated distress. Multiple overlapping signals suggest a motivated seller. This is the range where direct mail and phone outreach starts to produce meaningful response rates — typically 3-5% response compared to 0.5-1% for the general population.
61-80: High distress. Strong foreclosure activity combined with other signals. These owners are actively looking for solutions. Response rates in this range typically hit 8-12%, and the discount to market value averages 15-25%.
81-100: Critical distress. The property has multiple severe signals — active foreclosure with an approaching auction date, years of tax delinquency, unresolved code violations, and often absentee ownership. These are the leads you should contact today. Response rates exceed 15%, and motivated sellers at this level are often willing to accept 20-35% below market to avoid auction.
Using the Score in Your Workflow
On the [Austin Signals dashboard](/), every property is tagged with its Intelligence Score. You can sort, filter, and build saved searches based on score ranges.
Here's how experienced investors typically use it:
1.Daily review: Each morning, check for new properties that scored 60+ overnight. These are your highest-priority outreach targets.
2.Weekly campaigns: Build a direct mail or cold call list from properties scoring 40-59. These are your pipeline — owners who may not be ready to sell today but are trending toward distress.
3.Market analysis: Use score distributions by zip code to identify which neighborhoods have the highest concentration of motivated sellers. This informs where you spend your marketing dollars and driving-for-dollars time.
The score updates dynamically as new data comes in. A property that scored 35 last month might score 65 today if a notice of trustee sale was just filed. That's why daily monitoring matters — the Intelligence Score captures changes in real time.
What the Score Is Not
A few important caveats:
•The score does not predict property value. It predicts seller motivation and urgency. A high score does not mean the property is a good deal — it means the owner is likely willing to negotiate. You still need to run your own comps and underwrite the deal.
•The score does not guarantee contact. We provide the best available contact information, but some owners are unreachable. A high score with no valid contact info is still a dead lead until you find a way to make contact.
•The score is probabilistic, not deterministic. A score of 80 means the statistical likelihood of a motivated seller is very high. It does not mean the owner will sell. Human situations are complex.
The Data Advantage
Most investors in Austin are working with the same stale, un-enriched data from national aggregators. They're calling the same lists, sending the same letters, and competing for the same deals.
The Intelligence Score gives you something they don't have: a real-time, multi-dimensional view of property distress that tells you not just where to look, but where to look first. In a market where the first credible offer wins, that prioritization is worth more than any amount of raw data.
Ready to find your next deal? [Start your 7-day free trial](/trial) and access every distress signal in Travis County.